Tuesday, July 21, 2009

Back to WWIII - Unless...

Bibi's government is crazy enough to launch a pre-emptive strike on Iran. This move would trigger a regional and most likely a world war (considering US is already present in Afghanistan and Iraq).

The "attack Iran" rhetoric is gaining strength daily, along with other signs such as military drills.

It is quite absurd when realizing that Israel's foreign policy is dictated by Paranoia! Is this paranoia legitimate? Of course. The holocaust is one of the core's reasons for Israel's establishment. If Israel were to be "wiped off the map" as Iran threatens to do, half of the remaining Jewish population would perish.

STILL, this is no reason to act without rationale and consideration to important elements. First, an attack on Iran would do much harm to Israel - in terms of economy, morale, international attention and criticism, and many more reasons.

MAD exists as a deterrence mechanism. Why do we forget this? Iran knows Israel is nuclear capable and would destroy Iran if she attacked Israel. Mutual Assured Destruction is supposed to make Iran think twice; and why wouldn't they? I don't think the Ayatollah is ready to be sacrificed in this showdown.

Bottom line: Israel needs to chill out with the attack Iran rhetoric, and realize that deterrence works in the context of nuclear capabilities. A pre-emptive strike would be a terrible idea... but then again, Israel has executed many of those in her history.


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